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This is the last planned update from our local National Weather Service.
Helene continues to accelerate northward across Georgia early this morning and is now a Tropical Storm. Residual coastal impacts will continue with:
1) Deadly rip currents along the Alabama beaches today and tonight and along the western Florida panhandle beaches through Saturday afternoon
2) Dangerous high surf with breakers of 6-9 feet persisting along area beaches this morning, subsiding to 4-6 feet this afternoon
3) Minor coastal flooding along the Alabama and western Florida panhandle coastal interface as we head into high tide early this morning. Dry weather conditions are otherwise expected for the next several days.
For Your Awareness:
A Message to Potential Volunteers:
Do Not Self- Deploy. Coordinate through VOAD (Voluntary Organizations Active in Disaster)
Once assigned a position, make sure you have been given an assignment and are wearing proper safety gear for the task. Be patient. Recovery lasts a lot longer than the media’s attention. There will be volunteer needs for many months, often years, after the disaster, especially when the community enters the long-term recovery period."
Join Baldwin County VOAD: https://baldwincountyal.gov/ema/voad
For more information on emergency preparedness: https://baldwincountyal.gov/ema
For any media inquiries: https://baldwincountyal.gov/departments/county-administration/media-request
• Hurricane Helene is now a MAJOR HURRICANE with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph (Category 4) and will continue to strengthen as it lifts north northeast across the Gulf of Mexico
• Comparing the system with previous hurricanes in the Gulf over the past couple of decades, Helene is at the upper bound in terms of size…and, as a result, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far away from the center and well outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side.
Hurricane Helene is now a Category 4 MAJOR Hurricane (as of 518pm)
• Hurricane Helene is expected to remain well east of our local area and is expected to make landfall in the Florida Big Bend region late tonight
Local impacts include:
• Gusty conditions along the coast and east of I 65 gusts to 40 mph possible)
Tropical Related Watches and Warnings:
• Northerly winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph possible in the Wind Advisory
Potential Impacts:
• Likely time for 40mph gusts along the coast: Now through roughly 2am
• Likely time for 40mph gusts in south central Alabama: Ramping up before midnight through 4am
High Risk of deadly rip currents:
• When: Through Friday Night.
Dangerously High Surf:
– Breakers greater than 11-13 feet expected this evening through early Friday morning
Coastal Flood Advisory:
• When Through early Friday afternoon
– Inundation of 2.0 2.5 feet MHHW in northwest Florida and 2.0 feet along coastal Alabama
- Note: Water levels drop tonight with low tide and northerly winds with a quick rebound in the pre dawn hours on Friday
• Up to 2 inches of rain is forecast across far eastern portions of our area (south central Alabama and northwest Florida)
• Locally heavy rainfall in a short period of time could result in localized flooding of urban and low lying areas.
Key Take-Aways:
For Your Awareness:
Preparedness Tips:
For more information on emergency preparedness: https://baldwincountyal.gov/ema
For any media inquiries: https://baldwincountyal.gov/departments/county-administration/media-request
BCEMA and local officials are monitoring conditions and will update as any new information becomes available through National Weather Service of Mobile.
No significant changes occurred overnight there will continue to be wobbles in the track, but no major shifts are expected.
• Hurricane Helene is a Category 2 Hurricane this morning and will continue to strengthen as it lifts north northeast across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
• Helene will continue to accelerate later today in the flow between a ridge over the Atlantic and trough over the Tennessee Valley.
• Comparing the system with previous hurricanes in the Gulf over the past couple of decades, Helene is at the upper bound in terms of size…and, as a result, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far away from the center and well outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side.
• Hurricane Helene is expected to remain well east of our local area.
• Helene will continue to strengthen up until landfall and is expected to become a Major Hurricane before landfall in the Florida Big Bend region tonight or early Friday morning
• Gusty conditions along the coast and east of I 65 gusts to 40 mph possible)
Tropical Related Watches and Warnings:
• Northerly winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph possible in the Wind Advisory
Potential Impacts:
• There is still a 2 to 3 in 10 chance of tropical storm force winds sustained winds of 39+ mph) across the far eastern portions of south central Alabama and northwest Florida
• Likely time of stronger gusts (30 40mph) along the coast: Ramping up around 2 3pm and lasting until midnight
• Probabilities of 40mph wind gusts along the coast begin to increase around 7pm this evening
• Based on the latest track and guidance, the probability for storm surge inundation west of the Walton/Bay County Line is very low
• Locally, water levels will drop tonight with low tide and northerly winds with a quick rebound to coastal flood inundation levels in the pre dawn hours on Friday
High Risk of deadly rip currents:
• When: Through Friday Night.
Dangerously High Surf:
– Breakers greater than 10 feet expected this evening through late tonight.
Coastal Flood Advisory:
• When Through early Friday afternoon, especially with high tide early Friday.
– Inundation of 2.0 2.5 feet
• The rainfall forecast has decreased slightly since yesterday with a sharp gradient expected on the west side of the storm
• Up to 2 inches of rain is forecast across far eastern portions of our area (south central Alabama and northwest Florida)
• Locally heavy rainfall in a short period of time could result in localized flooding of urban and low lying areas.
Key Take-Aways:
• Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible across portions of south central Alabama, northwest Florida, and far southwest Alabama starting this afternoon and persisting through the evening hours.
For Your Awareness:
Preparedness Tips:
For more information on emergency preparedness: https://baldwincountyal.gov/ema
For any media inquiries: https://baldwincountyal.gov/departments/county-administration/media-request
BCEMA and local officials are monitoring conditions and will update as any new information becomes available through National Weather Service of Mobile.
• Hurricane Helene continues to strengthen this morning and is expected to become a major hurricane before making landfall along the Florida Big Bend this evening
• Slight shifts in the track may occur until landfall . Overall impacts to the local area have not changed
• Wind speeds of 15 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph across parts of south central Alabama, the western Florida panhandle, and coastal southwest Alabama
Based on the latest track and guidance, the probability for storm surge inundation west of Mexico Beach is very low.
Potential Impacts:
- Tropical storm force (>=39 mph) wind speed probabilities are similar to the previous advisory.
- There is a 1 in 10 to 2 in 10 chance of tropical storm force winds across portions of south central Alabama and northwest Florida.
- Northerly winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph possible across far southwest Alabama, the western Florida panhandle, and interior south central Alabama.
High Risk of deadly rip currents:
• When: Through Friday Night.
Dangerously High Surf:
– Breakers greater than 10 feet expected this evening through late tonight.
Coastal Flood Advisory:
• When This morning through early Friday morning.
• The rainfall forecast has decreased slightly. Up to 2 inches of rain is now forecast across far eastern portions of our area in south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle.
• Locally heavy rainfall in a short period of time could result in localized flooding of urban and low lying areas.
Key Take-Aways:
For Your Awareness:
Preparedness Tips:
For more information on emergency preparedness: https://baldwincountyal.gov/ema
For any media inquiries: https://baldwincountyal.gov/departments/county-administration/media-request
BCEMA and local officials are monitoring conditions and will update as any new information becomes available through National Weather Service of Mobile.
• Rapid intensification is forecast as Hurricane Helene enters the more favorable conditions in the southern and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
• Helene is expected to become a major hurricane before making landfall along the Florida Big Bend Thursday evening.
• The earliest reasonable time of arrival of Tropical Storm Force Winds is Thursday morning.
• However , the most likely time this area could see Tropical Storm Force Winds is Thursday afternoon.
Based on the latest track and guidance, the probability for storm surge inundation west of Mexico Beach is very low.
Potential Impacts:
- Tropical storm force (>=39 mph) wind speed probabilities are similar to the previous advisory.
- There is a 1 in 10 to 4 in 10 chance of tropical storm force winds across portions of south central Alabama and northwest Florida.
High Risk of deadly rip currents:
• When: Tonight through Friday Night.
Dangerously High Surf:
• When: Late tonight through Friday morning. Breakers greater than 10 feet expected late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night.
• This will likely cause over wash along the more vulnerable coastal roads.
Coastal Flood Advisory:
- Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches is currently forecast across south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle.
- Although this system will move quickly, minor river flooding may become a concern heading into this weekend.
Key Take-Aways:
For Your Awareness:
Preparedness Tips:
For more information on emergency preparedness: https://baldwincountyal.gov/ema
For any media inquiries: https://baldwincountyal.gov/departments/county-administration/media-request
BCEMA and local officials are monitoring conditions and will update as any new information becomes available through National Weather Service of Mobile.
• Hurricane Helene is in the northwest Caribbean and will move into the southern Gulf by this afternoon.
• Rapid intensification is forecast as Hurricane Helene enters the more favorable conditions in the southern and eastern Gulf of Mexico, and Helene is expected to become a major hurricane before making landfall along the Florida Big Bend Thursday evening.
• The earliest reasonable time of arrival of Tropical Storm Force Winds is Thursday morning.
• However , the most likely time this area could see Tropical Storm Force Winds is Thursday afternoon.
Based on the latest track and guidance, the probability for storm surge inundation west of Mexico Beach is very low.
Potential Impacts:
- Tropical storm force (>=39 mph) wind speed probabilities are similar to the previous advisory.
- There is a 1 in 10 to 4 in 10 chance of tropical storm force winds across portions of south central Alabama and northwest Florida.
High Risk of deadly rip currents:
• When: Tonight through Friday Night.
Dangerously High Surf:
• When: Late tonight through Friday morning. Breakers greater than 10 feet expected late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night.
• This will likely cause over wash along the more vulnerable coastal roads.
• We will be also monitoring for the potential of at least minor coastal flooding for Thursday night and again on Friday night.
- Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches is currently forecast across south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle.
- Although this system will move quickly, minor river flooding may become a concern heading into this weekend.
Key Take-Aways:
For Your Awareness:
Preparedness Tips:
For more information on emergency preparedness: https://baldwincountyal.gov/ema
For any media inquiries: https://baldwincountyal.gov/departments/county-administration/media-request
BCEMA and local officials are monitoring conditions and will update as any new information becomes available through National Weather Service of Mobile.
• Tropical Storm Helene is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane as it quickly lifts across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with an anticipated landfall along the Florida Big Bend area Thursday evening.
• Marine and coastal impacts, including dangerously high surf, deadly rip currents, hazardous marine conditions (due to strong winds and high waves) begin late tonight into early Thursday morning.
• We will also be monitoring for heavy rainfall and wind impacts, particularly across portions of south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle
• The earliest reasonable time of arrival of Tropical Storm Force Winds is Thursday morning.
• However , the most likely time this area could see Tropical Storm Force Winds is Thursday afternoon.
Based on the latest track and guidance, the probability for storm surge inundation west of Mexico Beach is very low.
Potential Impacts:
- There is a 1 in 10 to 3 in 10 chance of tropical storm force winds across portions of south central Alabama and northwest Florida.
High Risk of deadly rip currents:
• When: Tonight through Friday Night.
Dangerously High Surf:
• When: Late tonight through Friday morning. Breakers greater than 10 feet expected late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night.
• This will likely cause over wash along the more vulnerable coastal roads.
• We will be also monitoring for the potential of at least minor coastal flooding for Thursday night and again on Friday night.
- Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches is currently forecast across south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle.
- Although this system will move quickly, minor river flooding may become a concern heading into this weekend.
Key Take-Aways:
For Your Awareness:
Preparedness Tips:
For more information on emergency preparedness: https://baldwincountyal.gov/ema
For any media inquiries: https://baldwincountyal.gov/departments/county-administration/media-request
BCEMA and local officials are monitoring conditions and will update as any new information becomes available through National Weather Service of Mobile.
• Tropical Storm Helene is expected to intensify to near hurricane strength when it reaches the northwestern Caribbean Wednesday morning.
• Further intensification is expected as the storm lifts across the eastern Gulf and the system is expected to become a major hurricane before approaching the northeastern Gulf Coast Thursday evening.
• Marine and coastal impacts, including dangerously high surf, deadly rip currents, hazardous marine conditions (strong winds and high waves) begin Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
• We will also be monitoring for heavy rainfall and wind impacts, particularly across portions of south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle.
• However , the most likely time this area could see Tropical Storm Force Winds is now Thursday afternoon.
Based on the latest track and guidance, the probability for storm surge inundation west of Mexico Beach is very low.
Potential Impacts:
- Tropical storm force (>=39 mph) wind speed probabilities have decreased slightly since the previous advisory.
- There is a 1 in 10 to 2 in 10 chance across portions of south central Alabama, northwest Florida, and coastal southwest Alabama.
• Where: along the Alabama and western Florida panhandle beaches.
- We will be also monitoring for the potential of at least minor coastal flooding.
- Rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches is currently forecast across south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle.
- Although this system will move quickly, minor river flooding may become a concern heading into this weekend.
Key Take-Aways:
Please see graphic for more information.
For Your Awareness:
Preparedness Tips:
For more information on emergency preparedness: https://baldwincountyal.gov/ema
For any media inquiries: https://baldwincountyal.gov/departments/county-administration/media-request
BCEMA and local officials are monitoring conditions and will update as any new information becomes available through National Weather Service of Mobile.
Tropical Storm Helene is expected to intensify to near hurricane strength when it reaches the northwestern Caribbean Wednesday morning.
Further intensification is expected as the storm lifts across the eastern Gulf and the system is expected to become a major hurricane before approaching the northeastern Gulf Coast Thursday evening.
Marine and coastal impacts, including dangerously high surf, deadly rip currents, hazardous marine conditions (strong winds and high waves) begin Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
We will also be monitoring for heavy rainfall and wind impacts, particularly across portions of south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle.
- The earliest reasonable time of arrival of Tropical Storm Force Winds is now early Thursday morning.
- However , the most likely time this area could see Tropical Storm Force Winds is now Thursday afternoon.
Based on the latest track and guidance, the probability for storm surge inundation west of Mexico Beach is very low.
Potential Impacts:
- Tropical storm force (>=39 mph) wind speed probabilities have decreased slightly since the previous advisory.
- There is a 1 in 10 to 2 in 10 chance across portions of south central Alabama, northwest Florida, and coastal southwest Alabama.
• Where: along the Alabama and western Florida panhandle beaches.
- We will be also monitoring for the potential of at least minor coastal flooding along the Alabama and western Florida panhandle coastal interface late this week, especially going into Thursday night.
- Rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches is currently forecast across south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle.
- Although this system will move quickly, minor river flooding may become a concern heading into this weekend.
Key Take-Aways:
For Your Awareness:
Preparedness Tips:
For more information on emergency preparedness: https://baldwincountyal.gov/ema
For any media inquiries: https://baldwincountyal.gov/departments/county-administration/media-request
BCEMA and local officials are monitoring conditions and will update as any new information becomes available through National Weather Service of Mobile.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to intensify to near hurricane strength when it reaches the northwestern Caribbean tonight. Further intensification is expected as the storm lifts across the eastern Gulf and the system is expected to become a major hurricane before approaching the northeastern Gulf Coast Thursday.
- The earliest reasonable time of arrival of Tropical Storm Force Winds is late Wednesday night.
- However , the most likely time this area could see Tropical Storm Force Winds is Thursday morning.
Cyclone Nine, and it is too soon to let your guard down.
Potential Impacts:
- Tropical storm force (>=39 mph) wind speed probabilities have decreased slightly since the previous advisory.
- There is a 1 in 10 to 2 in 10 chance across portions of south central Alabama, northwest Florida, and coastal southwest Alabama.
- A High Risk of deadly rip currents will begin Wednesday night and continue through the end of the week along the Alabama and western Florida panhandle beaches.
- Dangerous high surf will also build along the Alabama and western Florida panhandle beaches as soon as Wednesday night with breakers over 10 feet possible late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
- We will be also monitoring for the potential of at least minor coastal flooding along the Alabama and western Florida panhandle coastal interface late this week, especially going into Thursday night.
- Rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches is currently forecast across south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle.
- Although this system will move quickly, minor river flooding may become a concern heading into this weekend.
Key Take-Aways:
PTC9 is expected to intensify into a major hurricane before it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday.
What We Know:
Please see graphic for more information.
For Your Awareness:
Preparedness Tips:
For more information on emergency preparedness: https://baldwincountyal.gov/ema
For any media inquiries: https://baldwincountyal.gov/departments/county-administration/media-request
BCEMA and local officials are monitoring conditions and will update as any new information becomes available through National Weather Service of Mobile.
Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 is expected to intensify to near hurricane strength when it reaches the northwestern Caribbean Tuesday night. Further intensification is expected as the storm lifts across the eastern Gulf and the system is expected to become a major hurricane before approaching the northeastern Gulf Coast Thursday.
- The earliest reasonable time of arrival of Tropical Storm Force Winds is late Wednesday night.
- However , the most likely time this area could see Tropical Storm Force Winds is Thursday morning.
Cyclone Nine, and it is too soon to let your guard down.
Potential Impacts:
- Rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches is currently forecast across southwest and south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle.
- Although this system will move quickly, minor river flooding may become a concern heading into this weekend.
- Tropical storm force (>=39 mph) wind speed probabilities have increased to a 2 in 10 to 3 in 10 chance across portions of south central Alabama, northwest Florida, and coastal southwest Alabama.
- A High Risk of deadly rip currents will begin Wednesday night and continue through the end of the week along the Alabama and western Florida panhandle beaches.
- Dangerous high surf will also build along the Alabama and western Florida panhandle beaches as soon as Wednesday night with breakers over 10 feet possible late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
- We will be also monitoring for the potential of at least minor coastal flooding along the Alabama and western Florida panhandle coastal interface late this week, especially around times of high tide Thursday night and Friday morning.
Key Take-Aways:
– PTC9 will be moving into a very favorable environment for further strengthening and a major hurricane appears plausible.
– This system will have a large wind field and impacts WILL be felt well outside of the cone .
conditions (strong winds and high waves).
Please see graphic for more information.
For Your Awareness:
Preparedness Tips:
For more information on emergency preparedness: https://baldwincountyal.gov/ema
For any media inquiries: https://baldwincountyal.gov/departments/county-administration/media-request
BCEMA and local officials are monitoring conditions and will update as any new information becomes available through National Weather Service of Mobile.
- However , the most likely time this area could see Tropical Storm Force Winds is Thursday morning.
Please see graphic for more information.
For Your Awareness:
Preparedness Tips:
For more information on emergency preparedness: https://baldwincountyal.gov/ema
For any media inquiries: https://baldwincountyal.gov/departments/county-administration/media-request
BCEMA and local officials are monitoring conditions and will update as any new information becomes available through National Weather Service of Mobile.
Baldwin County Emergency Management Agency is encouraging residents and visitors of Baldwin County to monitor local weather and be prepared should we have direct impacts to our area. Now is a good time to review your plans and replenish any necessary supplies.
Tropical Update:
OVERVIEW: A tropical disturbance, which recently became designated Invest 97L, has developed in the western Caribbean. Conditions remain favorable for tropical development as this system lifts into the northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico this week. NHC has increased the chance of development to 80 percent over the next 48 hours and 90 percent over the next seven days.
WHAT WE KNOW: Confidence continues to increase that Invest 97L will develop into a tropical depression or storm as it lifts northward into the Gulf of Mexico within the next few days. Further strengthening into a hurricane is possible. Confidence also continues to increase that hazardous marine conditions, dangerous surf, and life-threatening rip currents will impact our local beaches and adjacent Gulf waters by Thursday in association with this system.
WHAT WE DON'T KNOW YET: It is still too early to determine eventual intensity, track, or specific locations in the path of this system at this time, as these details will be difficult to resolve until the system organizes with a well-defined circulation. Rainfall amounts, wind, and the magnitude of storm surge potential in our area will ultimately be dependent on the track of the storm.
Key Take-Aways
Please see graphic for more information.
For Your Awareness:
Preparedness Tips:
For more information on emergency preparedness: https://baldwincountyal.gov/ema
For any media inquiries: https://baldwincountyal.gov/departments/county-administration/media-request
BCEMA and local officials are monitoring conditions and will update as any new information becomes available through National Weather Service of Mobile.
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251.937.9561 • 251.928.3002 • 251.943.5061
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